Calling today's Internet "dumb, boring and isolated,"
Forrester Research
(Nasdaq: FORR) is playing a funeral
dirge for the Net as we know it, predicting that the World
Wide Web will soon be replaced by a richer, interactive "X Internet."
The X Internet will not be a new invention, but rather the
evolution of today's Internet of static Web pages and
cumbersome e-commerce mechanisms into a Net that relies on
executable software code to deliver more interactive
experiences.
Executable Internet applications use
downloaded code like Java and XML to enhance the user
experience with pop-up menus, pick lists, graphics and
simple calculations, according to a recent Forrester
report entitled "The X Internet."
An easy way to understand how the X Internet will work
is to imagine that a band wants to distribute a
song over the Net. Rather than worrying about which audio player
people want to use, an executable file will deliver the
song and the audio player at the same time.
"With an executable, you can distribute movies the
same way you distribute songs," Forrester research
director and report author Carl Howe told NewsFactor Network.
"It just makes the models work better."
Building the X-Net
The report also employs an example of a person building
a house. With today's Internet, a builder would have to
find, then try to follow, an article detailing how to frame a
window. When it was time to install the
bathroom, the would-be plumber would then have to find
an article dealing with that topic.
Executable Internet applications would demonstrate to a
builder, step-by-step, how to frame a window. When it came
time to install the bathroom, the carpenter
would simply be replaced by a plumber.
"Instead of reading a book, you have a
conversation about the work you're trying to do," Howe
wrote.
Speeding E-Commerce
The executable Internet will also speed e-commerce
transactions, and create experiences that are
comparable to video games and television.
Glimmers of the executable Internet are already available,
Forrester says, in applications like Napster, online
gaming and SmartMoney.com's Map of the Market. But
complete executable Internet apps are still several
years away.
One of the biggest barriers to executable applications is
security .
"We've already seen one virus that was passed through
Gnutella," Howe told NewsFactor. "That's a quite
legitimate concern. I don't think it's a show-stopper,
but anybody who addresses the
X Internet market will have to be able to say, 'We've got that
covered.'"
X-tended Net
Forrester is also predicting the
widespread adoption of another X Internet -- but this
X stands for "extended." The extended Internet will
include the widespread adoption of real-world
appliances, like air conditioners or car tires, that
communicate with owners or manufacturers via the
Internet.
The extended Internet will come with the
inclusion of cheap sensors in thousands of everyday
products, an era that will begin around 2005, Forrester
predicts.
And despite his belief that the future Internet will
be much more useful in everyday life than today's, Howe
acknowledges there is a bit of hype in the report's
theme that the Web is dead.
"The reality is there will be a lot more executable
stuff. It may become the dominant way we interact, but
the Web's still going to be there," Howe said. "The
good news is the executables coexist very nicely with
the Web."
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