Your pager won't work. The movie you're watching on HBO might suddenly go blank while the cable connection seems fine. Or your ATM machine will kick back your debit card for no apparent reason.

In 1998, the Galaxy IV satellite that was orbiting the earth suddenly malfunctioned. About 80 percent of the pagers in the U.S. quit working. Cable and broadcast video feeds also shut down, while credit card authorization networks and other communication systems failed for weeks.

Space: The 'Irresistible' Target

The official explanation was that it was simply a malfunction. But, was it? And will it be next time? Only days after the incident, the official Chinese news agency Xinhua ran an article that said, in part:

"For countries that could never win a war by using the methods of tanks and planes, attacking the U.S. space system may be an irresistible and most tempting choice."

It wouldn't take much to disrupt and even immobilize the U.S. satellites upon which the country's military, government and commercial interests are increasingly dependent. All that would be needed is a rocket that can reach outer space, with some aiming capability, and a small nuclear warhead.

China easily has such potential. So does Russia. And so do Iran, Iraq and North Korea. And, perhaps scariest of all in the current crisis, so does Pakistan.

A 'U.S. Crusader' Virus?

The only thing upon which defense experts agree with respect to information technology and its place in future conflicts is that it will be used somehow, some way. There are an infinite number of possibilities.

Computer viruses are commonplace now, though almost always relatively unsophisticated. They could become more specific, however, and be directed at narrower targets.

For example, a "PLO virus" was developed at Hebrew University in Israel. In Japan, hackers invaded the computerized control system for commuter trains, disrupting major cities for hours. Italian terrorist group the Red Brigade specifically spells out how to take out computer systems and installations in its manifesto.

In Ireland, Sinn Fein supporters posted details of the British army intelligence operations in Northern Ireland on the Internet, and they weren't even in Ireland when they did so -- they were working from the University of Texas at Austin.

Electric power grids, oil and gas pipelines, vital communications systems, sensitive data -- they're all becoming more and more computerized and centralized. (continued...)

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