The program's high price, coupled with the absence of any guarantee that Microsoft would come out with timely upgrades, provoked overwhelming customer disapproval. In a survey of 4,000 IT managers by Giga Information Group and Sunbelt Software, a consulting company, more than half of those questioned said they were not going to sign up for Licensing 6.0.

But expressing disapproval about a licensing program and doing something about it are two different things. The evidence suggests Microsoft's Software Assurance program has caused some IT managers to defect to other platforms, particularly Linux. And more defections could be on the horizon.

Revolt Brewing?

In the end, up to about two-thirds of Microsoft customers did not sign up for Software Assurance, according to analysts. "We think a third have enterprise agreements and another third made a decision not to do anything," Alvin Park, research director at Gartner, told NewsFactor, noting that the final third bought upgrades on part of their licenses. That third probably will repurchase licenses at some point in the future, but they will have no upgrade rights, he said.

Microsoft declined to provide details on how many or what percentage of its customers had opted for Software Assurance.

Will companies make wholesale moves to other platforms? It is still early to make that judgment, according to Park. "I haven't seen any mass defections yet," he said.

But Microsoft's licensing gaffe has caused enterprises to begin looking at the competition and performing cost analyses on whether it would be beneficial to move to alternate products, Park said. "That type of movement, if it occurs, is just now beginning," he noted. "It will be important to watch in the next two years how many [companies] move to alternative-source or open-source platforms."

How Much Is Enough?

Although competing products may not be as robust as Microsoft's, that is not the issue, Park said. They may provide enough functionality to meet the needs of individual enterprises, which is what really matters.

David Roberts, chief executive of the UK-based Corporate IT Forum, told NewsFactor that he knows of at least eight organizations that are considering a change in their commitment to Microsoft. "They have made an investment in time and people to examine how they could reduce the total number of Microsoft licenses by trying to identify which ones they might be able to move," Roberts said. (continued...)

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