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Kurtz noted that EMC has aggressively diversified its Flash storage strategy with VFCache, along with Project Thunder and with the XtremIO acquisition. As it approaches $700 million in revenue, he believes EMC may have to begin to consider acquiring Fusion-io if its efforts with VFCache doesn't materialize in the first half of 2013 to avoid a repeat scenario of NetApp a decade ago in the NAS market.
"NetApp's upcoming partnership with Fusion-io may also act as an accelerant to EMC considering Fusion-io if that joint product development generates traction as well. The upcoming refresh of VFCache at VMworld, contacts tell us, will be a critical trend to follow in the coming months as it may reveal a tell on where EMC moves next on their PCIe strategy with Micron. Remember EMC sold Quantum DXi before acquiring Data Domain," Kurtz said.
"Ultimately, the window for Fusion-io as an acquisition target would likely be short as it evolves into a much larger purchase -- $3 billion-plus at this point we estimate -- and begins to build out its own networked storage strategy as an independent company."