"Within three years it will just be Blu-ray." That bold assertion was made by Frank Simonis, the European chairman of the Blu-ray Disc Association, in an interview with Reuters at the 2007 CeBIT technology conference in Hanover, Germany.
What makes Simonis' statement remarkable is that he is not merely predicting a victory by the Blu-ray disc over the rival HD DVD format, but that Blu-ray's will completely replace the widely popular current DVD standard by 2010.
One analyst thinks that Simonis' enthusiasm has gotten the better of him. Alison Casey, who follows media format trends for the London-based research firm Understanding & Solutions, said that the standard DVD will not disappear quite so quickly.
"It would be our view that standard DVD is not going to disappear overnight," Casey said. "Just because there's a new format doesn't mean that the old format will disappear."
Blu-ray's PlayStation Factor
Casey pointed out that some consumers will rush out and buy high-definition disc players or PlayStations 3s, but said that for the next five years, the majority of consumers will continue to use standard DVDs.
But Casey predicted that many consumers will make the transition to high definition when their current equipment breaks down and needs to be replaced. "Consumers will upgrade," she said, "but that will take time. Within five years, about a third will be high-def, but the rest will be still be standard."
The format war between Blu-ray and HD DVD hearkens back to the videotape battle between VHS and Betamax. Sony lost that battle, but is having much greater success with Blu-ray.
Much of that success can be traced, Casey said, to the enormous amount of hardware support  that has developed for Blu-ray. "When you look at hardware companies that back Blu-ray," she said, "it has a huge advantage."
At the top of the hardware list is Sony's own PlayStation 3, which is able to play Blu-ray discs. Sony has sold nearly two million PS3 units in the United States and Japan already, and has another million units scheduled for release in Europe next week.
Will HD DVD Join the Departed?
The influence of the PlayStation 3 on format choices is beginning to show up in the sale of movie titles. According to industry reports, Blu-ray movie titles outsold HD DVD titles by two to one in the first two months of 2007.
In mid-February, when the Oscar-winning film "The Departed" was released in both formats, the Blu-ray version sold 20,000 copies to the HD DVD's 13,000.
Casey does agree with Simonis that the Blu-ray technology will prevail in the marketplace, albeit somewhat more slowly. "Thanks to both the PlayStation and its broader hardware support," Casey concluded, "Blu-ray will eventually dominate the high-definition market. It will just take a little longer than Simonis is predicting."
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