Still, it is possible to identify a few of the trends that are most likely to emerge and get a sense of how future developments will affect consumers as well as I.T. pros. And there is at least one certainty that we really can count on, according to Doug Conorish, IBM's global solutions manager for managed security services.

"Wireless is going to progress no matter what, and businesses will continue to find that wireless is fast becoming a cheaper and better way to do things," he said.

The $100 Smartphone

The adoption of smartphones -- devices that combine the functions of a mobile phone with other sophisticated features -- is currently limited by the high cost of the devices, which typically command a bill of materials ranging from $250 to $350 per unit. But that might be about to change.

Top executives at Microsoft and Qualcomm recently said they expect the $100 smartphone to become a reality within the next 12 months. Other industry observers, however, are not so optimistic.

"Although I agree that the $100 smartphone is coming, it will be around the 2008 time frame, and not in 2006," said Phil Redman, a vice president at Gartner Research. He added that when such a phone eventually arrives, it will be targeted at enterprise workers and 'prosumers' -- a term used to describe early adopters -- rather than at a general consumer audience.

Others say making the $100 smartphone a reality requires looking past the device itself. "The applications, services, and the ecosystem required also have to be considered as well as the intellectual-property rights and the royalty fees that manufacturers have to pay," said Ali Tabassi, vice president of innovative technologies for Sprint-Nextel.

Forrester Research vice president Lisa Pierce said that she was skeptical because industry observers are the ones suggesting a $100 price tag, not the smartphone manufacturers. "When Motorola and Nokia chime in, I'll believe it," she said.

Even at $100 a pop, smartphones are unlikely to become a popular mass-market item anytime soon, Pierce said. "Most of the devices already out are not user-friendly, and smartphones are even more complicated," she said. (continued...)

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