Even in the typically strong notebook segment, NPD noted, unit sales of MacBook laptops fell seven percent in February, whereas Windows laptops jumped 36 percent. If not for the strong netbook sales, however, Windows laptops would have risen only 16 percent.

On the other hand, Apple did better in the overall U.S. PC market than rivals Dell and HP in the fourth quarter of 2008, growing unit sales by four percent even as total PC sales declined 4.4 percent from one year earlier, noted Mika Kitagawa, a principal analyst at Gartner.

Apple had strong growth in the U.S. professional market, "showing a growing interest from business sectors," Kitagawa said. "In the home market, Apple's growth was lower than the U.S. average" but only because of "robust mini-notebook shipment growth."

Laptop Cannibalization

Still, Apple is not likely to jump into the netbook market without carefully considering how to protect its regular Mac line, noted Stephen Baker, NPD vice president.

"The mainstream PC business is a mass market, wide distribution, low margin kind of product area, whereas the Mac business represents relatively limited distribution, high margins and higher prices," Baker said. Because of the potential "for cannibalization and price declines," he observed, "I am not sure that having a netbook would be in [Apple's] best interest."

Furthermore, stronger netbook sales are not really helping Apple's rivals either, Baker added. "In January it seemed to us that half of the netbook volume represented new unit sales while the other half was based on cannibalizing regular PC sales."

Nearly 50 percent of last year's netbook sales occurred in December, by which time the average selling price of a laptop had fallen to $740 -- down from $861 in January 2008. "From a revenue standpoint, the popularity of the netbook segment is forcing manufacturers to look at delivering lower-cost standard-sized notebooks," Baker said.

Alternate Sales Channels

Laptop makers need to make it clear to consumers that netbooks are not viable laptop alternatives when it comes to performing many computing tasks. Unfortunately, short-term competitive pressures are forcing vendors to introduce features that may blur the line between netbooks and laptops even more. "The netbook market is being redefined before it's been fine-tuned, and that may cause even more consumer confusion," Baker said. (continued...)

1  |  2  |  Next Page >