Given the significant differences in the launch landscape, the DROID results even stack up well against the first week of iPhone 3G availability, which Flurry pegged at about 1.6 million units.

Not Fair to Compare

A direct comparison is a bit unfair, said Peter Farago, Flurry's vice president of marketing. He pointed out that the iPhone 3G launched in eight markets simultaneously -- the U.S., Canada and six European countries -- while the Droid only launched in the United States. In addition, the third-generation iPhone 3G was working from an installed base of 27 million users, of which more than six million were expected to upgrade.

Droid can't claim those numbers, of course, but the common wisdom is that it has had a successful beginning. "I think the handset is off to a good start and is doing well for a company starting from a standing start," Farago said. "Overall, when you look at the numbers, it's not an apples-to-apples comparison. With that said, Motorola has a really good handset. It has done some deep reinvention and is rising like a Phoenix."

Flurry directly tracks about two-thirds of iPhone and Droid handsets, Farago said. Based on these and other numbers, it creates what the company says are very accurate estimates for the other third.

Good Start, but Jury Is Still Out

Analysts, working from anecdotal evidence rather than hard numbers, generally agreed with the positive assessment, but said this doesn't guarantee the handset will succeed. "I think it seems to be going well," said Will Stofega, research manager of IDC's Mobile Devices Technology and Trends team. "I think [the Droid is] consumer-focused. It will take a little while for IT managers to sort it out and figure out whether or not they are comfortable using DROID in an enterprise situation."

Another key to long-term success is how the device fares at the other end of the market, Stofega said. "The real interesting thing is whether it will work as an entry-level smartphone ... Will it be a good driver to get lower-entry people into the market on a smartphone versus a feature phone?"

Kirk Parson, senior director of wireless services at J.D. Power and Associates, agreed that the long-term fate of the Droid will be determined by what demographic becomes engaged with it. "It depends on who is using it," he said. "With the younger folks, it is going to do especially well. But with the mass users, the soccer moms of the world, it will take time. Whether they use it will determine how successful it is."

It shouldn't be forgotten that Motorola has a powerful ally. "Verizon has shown it can have a lot of success with smartphones at this price point," said Ross Rubin, director of industry analysis for the NPD Group. "Whenever you have a carrier with that large an installed base making this aggressive a push with a device, including advertising support, generally it results in a strong start for the handset. It appears that this is so in this case."